6 more weeks of Winter? A look back at Punxsutawney Phil’s past forecasts

Weather

For more than 120 years, Punxsutawney Phil has been making his yearly forecast for the final six weeks of Winter and the fun tradition to predict when Spring will arrive happens this Sunday.  

If Phil sees his shadow at daybreak then we will have six more weeks of winter, but, if he doesn’t then spring is expected to come early.

The big question is, how accurate is Phil? 

Records show that he has predicted Winter to continue for another six weeks 103 times and only indicating an early spring in 19 forecasts. When looking at past weather data, Phil doesn’t fair well with only a 39 percent accuracy rating.

So, you would be better off flipping a coin since you would be right at least 50 percent of the time, or just sticking with a human forecaster that gets a 60 percent or higher rating for accuracy.

This year, Phil is looking at cloudy and rainy weather in Pennsylvania, so he may have a hard time seeing his shadow, but our very own groundhog, Queen Charlotte, will have sunny skies on Sunday and most likely will see hers.

Either way, Spring doesn’t officially begin until March 19, giving us six more weeks of the Winter season.

 

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